This is the 2nd installment of our ROAD TO BEIJING series.

By Aaron Wong, Badzine Correspondent. Photos: Badmintonphoto 

 My editor asked me "WILL THE THOMAS AND UBER CUP RESULTS HELP US TO MAKE PREDICTIONS FOR THE OLYMPICS?"

Good question.

It occurs to me that they should, they might, and they won’t.

You cannot put too fine a point on it because we are comparing a team competition to an individual competition. The similarities are that both hold out badminton's most coveted trophies and this is partly because neither event is held annually. Some heros and heroines are forever associated with the Thomas and Uber Cups (TUC for short). Think Mia Audina at age 14 in 1994 when it all counted on her holding her nerve and at the same time going for her shots in the rubber game to hand the prestige to Indonesia and defeat to China. In 2006, Joachim Persson, although ranked in the top 25, was an unknown quantity to Asian observers. He gained fleeting fame by taking out an over-hyped Malaysian opponent, thereby ushering Denmark in to a second consecutive Thomas Cup final.

Pariahs are fashioned into the collective consciousness at such intense times too. Some rise above the notoriety, like Zhang Ning, who managed to live down 1994 loss to Audina (pictured below). Unfortunately, for Persson’s opponent, Malaysians have still not forgotten that incident. The Bernama Daily Malaysian News, in reviewing the recent Singapore Open, wrote “He has never really recovered from the setback of the 2006 Thomas Cup campaign, where he lost so miserably to Denmark's Joachim Persson in the vital third singles clash and coach Misbun Sidek sees it as an opportunity for (him) to start rebuilding his career again.” Not naming the player in question is intentional and it is meant to underline the fact that the media’s impact, combined with people’s perceptions, cannot be underestimated in affecting the outcome of things.

HISTORY

The Thomas and Uber Cups are held every two years and the Olympics every four. China took home honours this year in both men’s and women’s fields. The other finalists were Korea and Indonesia respectively.

The year of the previous Olympics, China also nabbed the TUC titles: a case of déjà-vu which Chinese national coach Li Yongbo did not let slip by without notice: “We won (the Uber Cup) in Jakarta in 2004 … We then went on to win 3-0 in Japan 2 years later. So according to this pattern, we will be winning 3-0 two years later from now too!” (Badzine, May, 2008).

China is on a roll, bagging the last 3 Thomas and Uber Cups. Men’s and women’s teams consistently include 3 or 4 world top ten (if not top five) singles players and doubles pairs, except in men’s doubles. If your life depended on it, you would hardly say it is anybody’s game.

ATHENS

Contrast this with the outcome of the 2004 Olympics. In singles, the men’s medallists were Indonesian for gold and bronze, and Korean for silver. Although players from China crowded the last four standing in women’s singles, it was a China vs. Netherlands 3-game final. The Dutch player brushed aside the world number one 11-4, 11-2 in the semis and the previous meeting between the finalists, earlier that year, was won by the Dutch player. It was a hard one to call on the day.

In the other men’s category, doubles, the semi-finals did not feature China either. It was an all-Korean final with Indonesia taking bronze. Women’s doubles was an all-China final. Korea fought off the third Chinese pair for bronze. A sole mixed doubles pair from China advanced to gold after thrashing out a 3-game final against Great Britain. The semis also contained two pairs from Denmark.

Overall gold tally: China-3, Indonesia-1, Korea-1. For comparison’s sake it is actually China-2 (this will become evident shortly).

So it was majority gold haul at the Olympics for the Thomas and Uber Cup Champions but they didn’t win everything. They were out of the race early in the men’s categories. Further, consider the alternate possibilities of the rubber matches for a moment and it could easily have turned out to be one gold for the TUC champions – only the women’s doubles. China’s formidability was not in doubt in 2004 but clearly a direct correlation cannot be made between the TUC finals and the Olympic finals

The last tournament before that Olympics, the prestigious Japan Open, set the tone for some performances that spectators would be treated to in Athens. The 2004 edition was famous for zero Chinese representation on the top podium step across all 5 categories despite China placing world top five players in 4 of those finals. The winners were spread amongst Singapore, the Netherlands, Korea and Indonesia. The same year, the newly crowned Japan Open champion Ronald Susilo ousted hot favourite Lin Dan the Olympics opening round and the same Dutch and Korean players made it to the Olympic finals.

SYDNEY

In 2000, Indonesia won the Thomas Cup over China 3-0; China won the Uber Cup over Denmark 3-0. Olympic gold tally: China-4, Indonesia-1. The Uber Cup winners reflected in the ultimate Olympics standings. That alone is a fair though simplistic assessment.

What stood out was a class act. In women’s doubles, for as long as Ge Fei/Gu Jun (pictured) were around, it was always a case of them and everyone else (and not so much China and everyone else). This is one of those rare times everyone would agree it was the surest thing in badminton. En-route to their second Olympic gold, they swept every match in straight games.

So if there is a clear frontrunner all season that is the solid bet for Olympic champion. In Sydney, there was no far and above candidate in men’s singles amongst the big names Xia Xuanze, Peter Gade, Taufik Hidayat and Hendrawan, and it was Ji Xinpeng also amongst the top 10 who topped them. You could say the same about this category in Athens once Lin Dan was sent packing early.

ATLANTA

Going back three Olympics the gold tally was: Korea-2, China-1, Indonesia-1, Denmark-1. Indonesia had whitewashed Denmark 5-0 to lift the Thomas Cup; and Indonesia had beaten China 4-1 for the Uber Cup. The TUC champions did not dominate the Olympics.

WHICH IS IT? THEY SHOULD, THEY MIGHT, OR THEY WON’T

It depends. The TUC has no bearing on the prospects for double defending Olympic mixed doubles champion Gao Ling or her latest partner Zheng Bo. Mixed is not a TUC fixture and neither of them were involved in level doubles matches. Thus, 1/5 of badminton’s Olympic medals are unaffected. If Zhang Ning defends her Athens gold it has nought to do with this year’s Uber Cup results because she was absent, and at the same time, World Champion Zhu Lin going to Jakarta appears to have done zilch to plead her case to play in Beijing.

Where it is hoped the results of the TUC should make a difference is in acknowledging strong performances by conferring or confirming Olympic berths to athletes. A glow of is pride is apparent when the various national press reported the Olympic selection for Eva Lee in singles, doubles, and mixed for the Americas, Thilini Jayasinghe for Sri Lanka and Uganda's Edwin Ekiring representing Africa. The Netherlands imposes stricter selection criteria than the Olympic committee’s and had submitted no names to attend the Olympics. Should this country feel morally obliged to grant an Olympic berth when a superior performance is delivered?

The Dutch ladies have served their argument in the form of the shock of the Uber Cup with three of them ranked outside the top 15 and into the 60s matching it to within 2 points of their opponents, all of whom are within the top 4. This sort of thing happens in tennis but is unheard of in badminton. Yao Jie (pictured) took care of the world#1 Xie Xingfang, Judith Meulendijks was only edged out 20-22 by Lu Lan in the rubber game, and Rachel Van Cutsen beat world Zhu Lin. Let’s not forget that the Netherlands were finalists the last time around when they were beaten 3-0 in singles. This time, they were close to returning the compliment against China. The Athens gold medal match also featured a Dutch player. Will there be an Olympic badminton tradition for The Netherlands? The shuttle is in their court, so to speak.

"What is clear from tonight’s tie is that the Chinese are not invincible and they can lose their composure when they are under pressure too,” said Netherlands coach Martijn Van Dooremalen. (Badzine, May 2008)

Click here for Part II

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